ON THE CUTTING EDGE: Death Or Taxes? Which Gets ‘Em To The Polls?
According to conventional wisdom, people vote with their pocketbooks – usually favoring the politico or party that promises to lower taxes or to reduce inflation. But 9/11 and the ensuing global War on Terror has set conventional wisdom on its ear, The Wall Street Journal’s Sharon Begley examines the efforts of political scientists to determine whether and how fear of death influences people’s decisions at the polls:
On the weekend before Election Day 2004, al-Jazeera broadcast a videotape in which Osama bin Laden, addressing the U.S., boasted about the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and tore into the Bush administration. Four days later, the president won re-election.
Three days before the March 2004 elections in Spain, terrorists bombed commuter trains, killing 191 people. The ruling party, which had strongly supported the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, went down to defeat.
Two cases in which terrorism was front and center in voters' minds. Two different outcomes. In Spain, the attack sparked a growing fury at incumbents for not keeping them safe. In the U.S., voters in greater number embraced candidates they perceived as stronger on national security.
A growing number of studies offer clues as to how terrorism and other deadly events affect people's voting decisions. The latest research shows that because such violent political acts are brutal reminders of death, they make conservatives, but not liberals, more hostile toward those perceived as different, and more supportive of extreme military policies, according to a study in April in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. …
Although some voters would feel betrayed by incumbents who failed to protect them, researchers say, these days that trend would more likely be swamped by a surge toward candidates perceived as hawks on national security. …
Even what seem to be exceptions support the rule that reminders of death cause people to hunker down in their own worldview. New Yorkers living or working near Ground Zero are regularly reminded of death, yet tend to be liberal, opposed to the Iraq war and critical of President Bush. …
"Reminders of death do make New Yorkers cling to their worldview more strongly," says psychology researcher Tom Pyszczynski of the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs. "If that worldview has to do with tolerance and peace and prosocial beliefs, then those positions strengthen."
Prof. Solomon and Prof. Pyszczynski and colleagues explain this conservative/liberal divide in the Bulletin study by suggesting that extreme militarism violates liberals' core beliefs. Since thoughts of death make people more committed to their worldview, hawks, but not doves, would increase their support for military action in the wake of a terrorist attack.
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