THE DAILY BLADE: The Stiletto’s Surname Analysis™ Of House Vote On Iraq Resolution


The Stiletto believes she may have broken new ground in political analysis with her hypothesis that Representatives who have the same last names have an increased probability of voting in tandem on legislation and resolutions passed by the House.

She first noticed the correlation in last month’s 253 to 174 vote to loosen President Bush's restrictions on human embryonic stem cell research.

In Friday’s 246 to 182 vote in favor of the nonbinding House resolution to oppose the administration's planned deployment of an additional 21,500 troops to Iraq, 229 Dems voted Yea, 2 Nay and 2 did not vote. The Washington Post notes, "Republican leaders kept GOP defections below even their most optimistic estimates," with just 17 voting for, 180 against and 4 not voting.

As always, the WaPo breaks the vote tallies down by party, state/territory, region, boomer status, gender and astrological sign.

But how did House members who share surnames vote?

For the most rigorous test of her premise that sharing the same surname predisposes Representatives to vote the same way, The Stiletto included only those who spelled their names the same way. Thus, her analysis omits such variations as "Rodgers" and "Rogers" or "Larsen" and "Larson."

Does The Stiletto’s hypothesis still hold? Take a look:

Duplicate Surnames

Yea Vote

Nay Vote

Bishop (3 total)

2 (D)

1 (R)

Brady (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Brown (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Davis (8; 1 didn’t vote)

5 (4 D, 1 R)

2 (R)

Diaz-Balart (2)

 

2 (R)

Green (2)

2 (D)

 

Hall (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Hastings (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Jones (2)

2 (1 D, 1 R)

 

Johnson (4)

3 (2 D, 1 R)

1 (R)

King (2)

 

2 (R)

Lewis (3)

1 (D)

2 (R)

McCarthy (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Miller (5)

2 (D)

3 (R)

Moore (2)

2 (D)

 

Moran (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Murphy (3)

2 (D)

1 (R)

Peterson (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Price (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Rogers (3)

 

3 (R)

Ryan (2)

1 (D)

1 (R)

Scott (2)

2 (D)

 

Smith (4)

1 (D)

3 (R)

Thompson (2)

2 (D)

 

Udall (2)

2 (D)

 

Wilson (3)

1 (D)

2 (R)

Young (2)

 

2 (R)

TOTALS  71

38 (35 D, 3 R)

33 (R)

 

 

Of the 434 members of the House, 72 are not surname singletons. [Note: The Senate only has one pair with the same last name, Nelson (D-FL) and Nelson (D-NE).]

In all, there are 27 surname duplicates in the House. Davis – not Smith or Jones - is the most common, with 8 Representatives answering to that name (one Republican Davis did not cast a vote, so this analysis includes the other 7 Davises):

 

† Overall, 10 of the 27 shared surnames went either 100 percent for or against the resolution; in each case, the vote was strictly along party lines.

 

† Where the surname vote was split, (8 of the 27), Representatives also tended to vote along party lines - except for one of the Republican Davises and one of the Republican Johnsons, who crossed party lines to vote with the Dem Davises and Johnsons.    

 

† When two Representatives with the same last name cancelled each other’s votes (that is, one voted for the resolution and one against) 89 percent of these 9 pairs voted along party lines. But the Republican Jones crossed party lines to vote with the Dem Jones for the resolution.

 

Clearly, party affiliation remains the strongest predictor of how a Representative will vote – but while the number of Dems and Republicans sharing a surname with at least one other member was nearly 1:1 (35 v. 36 of the 71 who voted), there were 5 more Yea votes than Nay votes.

 

So The Stiletto’s hypothesis that House members who share a surname tend to flock together on votes still holds up. Over time, a Representative’s surname may well prove more predictive of how he or she will vote than his or her astrological sign.



Curves Make A Comeback

The Washington Post’s Robin Givhan reports that "at a time when the body standard for models - and actresses - has come under scrutiny for being unrealistically and unhealthily thin" Jennifer Hudson is featured on the cover of the March issue of Vogue wearing a burgundy satin dress designed by Carolina Herrera; Beyoncé Knowles graces the cover of the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue; and Tyra Banks, the first black model to appear on the cover of the Swimsuit Issue solo 10 years ago, wore the same polka-dot bikini for the current edition – only resized to better fit her 20 pounds heavier figure.

Givhan explains:

The one thing that connects these three curvaceous women, other than their celebrity, is that they are women of color. On them, curves are acceptable. …

[O]nly African American and Latina actresses really get away with extra pounds, or even just a round bottom. See: Jennifer Lopez, Queen Latifah, "Ugly Betty's" America Ferrera and "Grey's Anatomy's" Chandra Wilson and Sara Ramirez.

One could argue that these women, each one quite pretty, are not considered part of the mainstream - their ethnicity is still a regularly used modifier in their professional lives. They stand just a little apart, so they are exempt from adhering to mainstream definitions of beauty. They set their own standards. …

Roundness is more accepted of black women because they are more accepting of their own curves.

In The Stiletto’s own personal experience, "a lot of men like ‘a lot of woman’," as Givhan puts it. Though she is not a woman "of color," The Stiletto belongs to an ethnic group that tends towards voluptuousness – a woman without ample cleavage and rounded hips and buttocks is considered shortchanged by G-d. If The Stiletto could effortlessly (no dieting or exercise) be 25 pounds lighter for the rest of her life but lose her curves in exchange – well, let’s just say she intends to keep that little bounce in her walk.

When you’ve gotten wolf whistles since puberty, you tend to like your body just the way it is. So Givhan’s generalization that white women strive to be rail thin, does not hold true for those who belong to Southern European, Mediterranean and Near Eastern ethnicities – in part, because their men like women to have oomph.

The ideal of beauty promoted by the fashion and entertainment industries has evolved from the blonde, blue-eyed Grace Kelly look of decades past to the stronger, more distinctive features of multiethnic and multiracial women. Similarly, as the percentage of Americans of mixed ethnicity or race grows, the emaciated body type promoted on the catwalk and in the movies today will be discarded in favor of the juicier breasts, hips and thighs of women who do not wear sizes 0-4 - and do not want to.