The FL Republican primary was do or die for Rudy Giuliani (NY). For weeks, pundits waited with bated breath to see whether Rudy would “do,” like John McCain (AZ) in NH or “die,” like Fred Thompson (TN) in SC.

Well, the votes are in and Rudy’s out. McCain got 36 percent of the vote; Mitt Romney (MA), 31 percent; and Rudy got just 15 percent. McCain can lay claim to the state’s 57 delegates, and has the wind at his back going into Super Duper Tuesday when 21 states hold primaries and caucuses.

Like Thompson, Rudy got to the dance too late. The voters had already paired up with candidates. No doubt poli-sci majors will be studying the tactical errors by these two campaigns for years to come.

Rudy’s concession speech wasn’t rah-rah as much as reflective, and he spoke of his campaign in the past tense. Rudy is expected to throw his support to McCain.

Here’s the breakdown of the vote, according to early exit polling:

† Hispanics (Cubans, Puerto Ricans and Mexicans) comprise the largest minority group in FL – 10 percent of the total vote - and one out of two of them went for McCain. Rudy picked up 26 percent of these votes, with Romney trailing at 16 percent.

† McCain also did well amongst voters over the age of 60 (40 percent vs. Romney’s 31 percent and Rudy’s 18 percent), and edged out Romney amongst those who cited the economy as their top concern (38 percent vs. 34 percent). 

† For his part, Romney won over those who based their votes on illegal immigration (45 percent to McCain’s 22 percent) and split the military veteran’s vote with McCain (36 percent to 37 percent).

† As he has in the past, McCain won the votes of registered Republicans who self-identify as “independents” (37 percent vs. 21 percent for Romney) and moderates, but Romney bested him amongst conservatives (40 percent vs. 27 percent). More than 60 percent of Republican voters in FL say they are conservative; just 20 percent describe themselves as independents.

Mike Huckabee (AR) garnered single digits across nearly all demographic groups of voters – but as he came in at a very a close fourth place finish (13 percent), his campaign’s spin is that he really came in third when you consider how much time and money Rudy had invested in the state.

Hillary Wins The Beauty Contest In FL

Hillary Clinton (NY) won the FL Democrat primary, and gets bragging rights (“I am thrilled to have had this vote of confidence that you have given me today”) but no convention delegates because the national committee stripped the state of its delegates as punishment for moving up the date of the primary election from February 5^th. To underscore that point, just after CNN called the race for Hillary, Obama’s campaign put out a statement: "Breaking... Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida. 0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."

Hillary got 50 percent of the vote, Barack Obama (IL) got 33 percent and John Edwards (NC) just 14 percent. It’s debatable how predictive the vote breakdown is for the contests to come on Super Duper Tuesday, since the candidates did not campaign in the state except for a few ads for Obama running on cable channels and several fund-raisers attended by Hillary.

As in SC, Hillary won the majority of the white vote (53 percent), but Obama and Edwards tied for the rest of these votes at 22 percent each. Edwards would do Obama a huge favor if he dropped out now, so that Obama can capture more of the white vote that Hillary isn’t getting – in the 22 states holding contests next week, whites comprise six in 10 voters.

Hillary and Obama split the minority vote, with Hillary getting overwhelming support from Hispanic voters and Obama winning 70 percent of the black vote. Hillary got more votes than Obama amongst white women, the reverse was true amongst black women.  

Hillary also promised FL voters that she “will do everything I can to make sure not only are Florida's Democratic delegates seated, but Florida is in the winning column for the Democrats in 2008.” Political analysts expect the national party to relent and seat FL’s 185 delegates and MI’s 156 delegates at the convention in Denver.

Fan Mail From Some Flounder

A letter Natsumi Shirahige sent aloft in a balloon in 1993 to commemorate her elementary school’s 129^th anniversary has been found stuck to a flatfish that a 52-year-old fisherman hauled up from 3,300 feet below the Pacific. The then six-year old had written, "Our school is 120 years old. ... If you pick up this letter, please write to me." Shirahige, now a 21-year-old university student, tells Agence France-Presse: "I can't get over the wonder of how the letter survived 15 years. I never expected I'd get a reply this way."

The Stiletto Scoops Robert Novak

Many pundits assumed that when Hillary Clinton played “the race card,” she meant to solidify her cred with white voters – particularly those who are lower income and less educated – by reminding them of Obama’s blackness, so as to undermine his campaign strategy based on transcending race. ... Obama is convinced that white racism is yesterday’s news, else wouldn’t be running on the promise of a new tomorrow. Hillary must be convinced of it too, which means her only strategic option is to exploit black-Hispanic tensions. Obama is up against “El Efecto Bradley,” the Hispanic version of the Bradley effect, where it’s all Kumbaya amongst black and Hispanic leaders but a different story on the mean streets. 

- El Efecto Bradley, The Stiletto Blog, January 21, 2008 

Sen. Hillary Clinton is relying on the big Latino vote as her firewall to prevent her losing the Feb. 5 primary in California, the most important of 22 states contested on the Democratic side on Mega Tuesday. But that reliance, both pro-Clinton and anti-Clinton Democrats say, is fraught with peril for the Democratic Party coalition because it threatens to alienate its essential African American component. … To encourage this firewall, the Clinton campaign may be drifting into encouragement of Hispanic vs. black racial conflict by condoning Latino hostility toward the first African American with a chance to become president.

- Clinton's Risky Gamble, The Washington Post, January 28, 2008

The Stiletto Scoops The Washington Post

Throughout his political career, JFK was a staunch anti-communist. In 1954 he was the only Dem senator who did not vote to condemn Joseph McCarthy's anti-Communist crusade; running against then-Vice President Richard Nixon in the 1960 presidential election he (falsely) accused the Eisenhower administration for falling behind the Soviet Union in stockpiling ballistic missiles; as president, his foreign policy initiatives were focused on resisting the spread of Communism in Latin America and in the Western hemisphere (the “Kennedy Doctrine”). … The JFK liberals think they remember never existed. Were he alive today JFK, Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman would likely have been friends and political allies.

- Is Obama The New JFK?, The Stiletto Blog, January 28, 2008

The Bay of Pigs. "Military advisers" heading to some little place, Vietnam. Marilyn Monroe and who knows who else. Back pain, pills to make it go away. Backroom deals with racist Southern authorities. Those questionable precincts in Illinois getting him past Nixon. … Bay of Pigs! Marilyn! No need to mention these sorts of things today. … Nothing wrong with that. This is politics. We are never more than the myths we tell ourselves we are. Yesterday, the ideals of one of the nation's most beloved presidents were handed down for a new generation. It should make for a good story.

- Barack Obama, Camelot's New Knight, The Washington Post, January 29, 2008